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Azerbaijan Induced Its Isolation When It Had Potential To Be Regional Hub

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Azerbaijan Induced Its Isolation When It Had Potential To Be Regional Hub

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Iran and India opt for Armenia instead of Azerbaijan for regional connectivity project.

Written by Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst

Azerbaijan, with the backing of Turkey and Syrian mercenaries, were the undisputed victors of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War after reclaiming most of the territory from Armenian control. It was expected that with most of Nagorno-Karabakh under Baku’s control, new trade and transportation corridors would open and ensure that Azerbaijan became an indispensable connectivity hub in the Caucasus. Although there is a possibility for a trade corridor with Turkey to open and extend into the Turkic heartland of Central Asia, Azerbaijan’s hostile and aggressive posture has also meant that India and Iran are looking elsewhere to engage with Europe economically.

On Monday, a BBC journalist quoted the chairman of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, Alireza Peymanpak, as saying: “Two alternative Iran-Eurasia transit routes will replace Azerbaijan’s route. First opens in a month via Armenia after [the] end of repair work, and the second via sea by purchasing and renting vessels.”

Peymanpak was referencing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a major economic project that is 7,200-km long and comprises of rail, road and water routes aimed at reducing travel time and costs. It will also boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, the Caucasus, India and Europe. Not only is this route 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current route, but it also serves as a geopolitical tool to further isolate Azerbaijan as its relationship with Iran and India deteriorates.

The original INSTC route runs through India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. Baku made massive investments to improve their own local infrastructure to accommodate for the necessities of the INSTC, completing roads, railways, bridges and tunnels. However, despite their economic commitment to be a key player in the INSTC, Azerbaijan’s ideological guide has led to a cooling of relations with Iran and India.

Azerbaijan in recent times has become increasingly vocal in condemning India’s policies towards Kashmir in support of Pakistan. It is recalled that in January, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan issued a joint declaration to support each country’s respective ambitions in Nagorno-Karabakh, Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, and Kashmir. Although their trilateral relations have always been strong, they have been conducting joint military exercises more regularly since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, including directly on the Iranian border. It could suggest that the alliance was emboldened by victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and could now be more willing to use war to achieve its goals.

Due to Baku’s overconfidence after last year’s victory, it has not hidden away from demanding more territory. Territorial demands are not just over the bulk of Armenia, but also Iran’s northwest Azeri-majority region. Although Tehran and Baku traditionally have cordial relations, the calling of greater territorial conquests and the blatant display of Israeli military equipment in Azerbaijani possession has broken trust, with war between the two countries seemingly not far away.

The Indian reaction to the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan trilateral nexus has been swift. As India is also an emerging economy with a huge market and potential, even ultra-conservative monarchist states like Saudi Arabia have significantly cut their funding to radical Islamist organizations in Pakistan to successfully find a balance with India. With the exception of Qatar, traditional jihadist financiers across the Arab States in the Persian Gulf have stopped money flows as they now prioritize developing their economies and modernizing infrastructure.

In this way, Pakistan is increasingly seen as more of nuisance because of its chronic insistence on exporting jihadists, an image that Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to break away from. With the Arab states less focussed on perceived global Islamic issues like Kashmir, it is unsurprising that trade with India has skyrocketed – trade between India and Saudi Arabia amounted to $33.09 billion in 2019-2020, whilst between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia it was only $1.7 billion in 2019.

Due to the increasing hostilities by the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan nexus, India and Iran announced that the INTSC from next month will begin running through Armenia instead of Azerbaijan to reach Russia. Baku believed that it could balance an aggressive foreign policy whilst being an indispensable state in connectivity projects. Instead, it finds itself increasingly isolated with no friends besides Turkey and Pakistan, and only cordial ties with Georgia and Russia.

With the Turkish lira once again breaking its record against the U.S. dollar on Monday, Turkey has extremely limited capacity to once again deal with another military front in the Caucasus, especially as it is seemingly preparing for a new operation against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria. This effectively means that if Azerbaijan was to provoke another war in the region, it is unlikely that Turkey can offer the same support it did against the Armenians, especially if fighting against Iran.

None-the-less, due to the increasing instability instigated by Azerbaijan in the region, it is becoming an unreliable partner for countries to put trust in it to be a transportation-trade hub. In this way, Iran and India are now hinging on Armenia for regional connectivity as they aim to isolate Azerbaijan from such corridors. If the pan-Turkic corridor fails to materialize, Azerbaijan through its own actions turned its potential of being an indispensable transportation-trade hub to being isolated from ambitious regional projects aimed at improving connectivity – and this is to Armenia’s advantage as the two massive regional powers of Iran and India will more closely build relations with it.

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Chris Gr

The Azeris are ruled by kleptocrats but their people want something like the Fire Horse Clique, just like in Hearts of Iron 4.

farbat

baku could had become a nexus of russian turkish and iranian cooperation now baku has become an isolated nobody while armenia takes its place instead typical turkish nonsense they will soon move themselves towards huge economic isolation

Last edited 13 days ago by farbat
Chris Gr

Fire Horse Clique?

block

Learn proper English, idiotic troll.

farbat

actually my use of baku being a nexus of turkish russian and iranian cooperation made the writer of the article misuse the word nexus in a wrong way instead of axis triumvirat or whatever nonsense they want to use to describe them a nexus is a place things come together and this fictional alliance doesnt has such a place certainly the hostility of turkey and baku make it impossible for them to have iran as their nexus of cooperation so there no such a thing as a turkish baku and pakistan nexus existing

Last edited 13 days ago by farbat
block

Congratulations Azeri fools. Your ignorant decisions and groveling to turkish interests will be remembered by Russia, China, India & Iran for many decades.

The future of Azerbaijan unfortunately became a lot darker.

ATTILA

And what you gonna do?

YepItsTrue

Well, when you are geographically located in central Asia – and India, Iran, China and Russia opt to bypass you as a trade route, and ignore you as a future economic partner, you are totally f^cked.

Jon

Nakchiavan

It’s inevitable

It’s is written

Ancient

farbat

its called nakhjavan meaning young stripe and it was created by iran as a caucasian inner border ring before the mountain range so dont blabber nonsense about a place you dont even know anything about

Last edited 13 days ago by farbat
Jon

I’m sorry farbat, but Turkey and Azerbaijan both desire to share a common border so that the land corridor that will feed the ambitions of both is complete. This means connecting Nakhjavan (myriad spellings btw) to Azerbaijan proper. Armenia certainly can’t stop it, and Russia and Iran can ill afford the distraction. The momentum of history won’t be denied.

farbat

you mean the collapsing turkey and the isolated deluded baku are somehow now a big deal?

Last edited 13 days ago by farbat
ATTILA

And who’s going to do that stupid Mullas lovers ?

farbat

did you ever count your debts and did you ever care about your situation before you talked up as if you are a big player you indebted poor fools

farbat

btw dont call baku azerbaijan they are shirwani province and ethnically they are daylamite they have as much to do with azarbaijan as mongols have with native americans and yes turkey believes the world is turk turk under its retarded ideology but that doesnt mean much to us iranians we will smack the turks in their face and take half of turkey if they annoy us we will be the ones changing borders not them that includes this imposter republic of baku who can become part of iran again so can most of turkey i really would like to see which armies dare to stand opposite to iran and dare to shoot at us such armies cant walk close to us and seriously threaten us because we already broke their legs

Last edited 13 days ago by farbat
ATTILA

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 you gonna take over TURKIYE you are f****** joker of the day 🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕

farbat

its called revolution

ATTILA

Relvoliton only happens in Iran. Very soon you going to witness another one .get your suitcase ready. TURKIYE We got no problem whats over do not worry… But Iran boiling at the moment…..

YepItsTrue

Could Turkey be any more stupid and gullible? US got Turkey to be forward operating base in NATO proxy war against Syria, by promising Turkey all sorts of potential territorial spoils of war, like snatching Aleppo if Syria collapsed. Didn’t happen. Now TAF are stuck in support of HTS in Idlib with no available exit strategy. Skip forward ten years from beginnings of Syrian conflict and Turkey are doing it all over again. This time as the NATO forward operating spear for creating central Asian tensions against traditional Russian friend Armenia, and against Iran. This was green lighted by US, probably promising Turkey it could achieve territorial spoils of war again. Turkey is easily tricked into getting its hands dirty for US-NATO agenda.

Last edited 12 days ago by YepItsTrue
farbat

iran doesnt has territorial ambitions unlike you fools or other imbeciles like you and in fact i repeat if somebody changes borders its iran but at the same time we dont have a need of that so borders can stay as they are we just need to change a few internals of turkey and baku which will indeed happen

Last edited 12 days ago by farbat
Ahson

Iran’s already drawn a line in the sand……..Any attempts at changing the borders will be swiftly defeated. Your momentum back to the east torkestan of xinjiang is the only option. Your real home no? A home for the muzlim guppu people of mongolia.

Last edited 13 days ago by Ahson
YepItsTrue

That depends on Iran. Iran now sees any link up corridor as a major problem. It would impact Iranian transit and control of hydrocarbon supplies into area. Moving forward Iran will respond to events around issue by actively seeking to keep road lines open with Armenia.

Last edited 12 days ago by YepItsTrue
ATTILA

F*** Iranian gay Mullah….

farbat

insolence doesnt make any points for you so tell me where are the 40 million show me 4000 atleast and didnt i tell you that there are only iranians inside iran so why do you mistakenly create a bad situation for yourselves

Last edited 12 days ago by farbat
ATTILA

South Azerbaijan population is 40 million.why Mullas finish drilling so early near Azerbaijan borders . Because they shiting themselves from motherland and South Azerbaijan Turks revolution will happen from that area soon ….

Colonel Dolma

Azeri sold their soul to talmudic zionists and donmeh turks…. now we shall see the consequences.. Armenia needs a strong leader to participate.. not globohomo Pashynian and his woke followers….hope he is deposed soon

ATTILA

Donmeh your mama

YepItsTrue

Excellent report. Azerbaijan has no one to blame but themselves. Signing up to be a Turkey-NATO stalking horse against Armenia and Iran leaves them with no regional economic relations other than Turkey and Pakistan, meaning their hitched to two long term under performing economies.

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