Kiev armed with arguments for the beginning of a new attack on the Donbass.
This article originally appeared at Interpolit, translated by John exclusively for SouthFront
Secretary of the National Security and Defense of Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, considers that Ukraine is currently “pressed” to Russia. With the support of its Western Backers, one of the organizers of power stripping of Donbass said that “Russia, now there is simply no bargaining chips to accuse Georgia of violating the Minsk agreement”. “We have them actually pressed… Putin doesn’t have any arguments to say: ‘you see, once again it’s thwarted by the Minsk Agreement, again Ukraine is not fulfilling its obligations’ – said Mr Turchynov in the offensively self-assured Kiev manner. In his opinion the People’s Republic of Donbass, in contrast to Ukraine, haven’t created the conditions for elections as prescribed by the Minsk-2 agreement. It isn’t difficult to guess that a statement like that from the head of the NSDC of Ukraine inspired the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geffrey R. Pyatt, at a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly with Norman Quartet, called the upcoming elections to the DPR and LPR a “Farce”, without waiting for the results of the elections.
It should be noted that another portion of allegations are not consistent with the fact that it is the Ukranian leadership who has taken all measures to ensure that the political points from the Minsk agreements have remained on paper (adoption of the law on decentralization, amnesty for participants in the events in the Donbass, and the law on local elections “in some areas…”).
It is enough to say that the Ukrainian authorities had not only refused these laws to the consent of the representatives of the DPR and LPR (which are directly stated in the Minsk Agreement), but in general, have banned the voting in uncontrolled territories.
Turchynov’s statements were not a revelation, says a member of the Council on International Relations under the Russian president, Bogdan Bezpalko.
— There is an impression that this gentleman is alwys lying and that for any reason. Let’s start with the thesis about the lack of leverage over Ukraine. Now the main problem of Kiev is not so much the fighting in the East, but the approaching social and economic disaster. For example, the prices for gas did rise by 600% for the Ukrainian people, from September 1 electricity went up 20%. Try to explain such large price increases to its own citizens, including the utillity bills (3-5 times), not to mention unemployment who reached record levels, as “the intrigues of the Kremlin”, that will be increasingly difficult.
In order for the people to be willing to “suffer for power” a certain level of public anit-Russian hysteria should be maintained.
— It seems no accident that Turchinov found “53 thousand Russian soldiers” on the territory of the Donbass?
Such a great group would be impossible to hide on such a small place. In addition we must remember that such a group would be accompanied with lot’s of equipment and staff. An army of this kind would be impossible to hide from the representatives of the OSCE and the US and EU reconnaissance with drones and satellites.
— Does Russia have the means to bring the Ukrainian political class back to life?
They belong to the economic sphere. Recall that recently Kiev appealed to Moscow to review the old debt and to allocate a new loan.
— This received ofcourse a logical refusal. “The concept has changed dramatically”. Kiev will now plead with Moscow, which refuses to restucture the Ukrainian debt of 3 billion dollar.
This whole situation is rather offensive towards Kiev. Because if they fail to repay the debt, the IMF will be obliged to freeze the implementation of programs to provide new loans to Ukraine. Whether this is a sovereign debt or commercial (as urged by the Minister of Finance Ms. Yaresko). The negotiation have to be with Russia, but the automatic cancellation of the debt is out of the question.
It is also worth mentioning that until recently Ukraine appealed to Russia for the purchase of electricity and coal, in which the “aggressor country” kindly agreed to supply at domestic prices.
President Poroshenko recently said that Russia closed its markets for half of the Ukrainian goods. The fact that Kiev refused to cooperate in the military technical cooperation with Russia is, of course, kept silent. Ukrainian authorities did not want to admit the fact that the deplorable state of the economy is directly related to the rupture of these bonds.
At the time, George Soros admitted that the deprivation of the Urkainian markets in the CIS will turn in a loss of foreign exchange earnings in the amount estimated between 20 to 40 billion dollar. It is much more that those loans (which still have to repay with interest), which promised the “independent Ukraine” of the IMF. From January next year, the implementatin of the Agreement as being an aspirant state of the EU will begin. It threatens the complete closure of markets in the countries of the Customs Union for Ukrainian goods.
— Can we say that the head of the NSDC of Ukraine shared with the public “creative plans” of the US and Kiev in the near future, to disrupt the Minsk Process, to blame it on Russia, and…
Okay, it is clear that Western cynicism and double standards have no borders. Of course, Berlin and Paris are fully aware of the current Kiev leadership. The problem here is that they themselves are under pressure from the United States.
No less than the authorities of Bulgaria or Greece, are considering the closure of its airspace for the Russian planes delivering military assistance to Syria. However, the “red line” exists. If Kiev itself will begin large-scale fighting, Paris and Berlin may cease to cooperate with Ukraine in a number of areas.
The current “frostbitten” state of “no peace, no war” with periodic shelling (which is a direct violation of the Minsk Agreement) are only satisfactory with Washington. In fact, Kiev does not fulfill even the first basic points about the truce.
Poroshenko twice brought a draft law on decentralization to the parliament, which was to contribute to the establishment of civil peace in Ukraine. But even in this false view (which is not compatible with the other party to the conflict) these laws were not adopted. This is another violation of the Minsk-2 agreement. I’m not talking about the law of amnesty (as representatives of the DNI and LC can vote in local elections without Kiev threatens to imprison them).
The Minsk agreement stipulate that Ukraine will start paying pensions and social benefits to the residents of Donbass, as being the promised restoration of the social welfare infrastructure.
— How can we restore the current status quo, while nothing that we do is to observe?
For the Americans, of course, it would be great if the war continued as a hot key (preferably with the involvement of Russia in it). For the Europeans it would be optimal to freeze the conflict. And after some time resume the economic cooperation with Russia, which is vital for Europe. What in particular is the resumption of negotiations on the “North-Stream-2”.
Unfortunally, Poroshenko and all who govern Ukraine, do not have a full subjectivity. They are in a state of “Brownian motion” which forces them to act as they do.This is not a subject but an object policy. And form the object you can expect evertything you want.
In December, when the deadline happens for the Minsk Agreemanet, the question arises, on what legal basis to be negotiated between Ukraine and the People’s Republic. If there is no substitute will be found for this format, or the path will be a military or economic confrontation, then Kiev and the EU do not have to rely on the fact that Russia will go forward on the issue of filling the storage facilities necessary for the transit volumes. By the way, the DNI and LC have already declared termination of coal supply to Ukraine.
This summer, a nember of Ukrainian thermal power stations have stopped due to lack of fuel. What led to disruptions in the electricity supply. It is also a powerful lever to influence the situation in Ukraine.
There will be elections in the republics or not. In terms of sanctions against Russia, which is not so important. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the economic war against Russia will continue since it takes place in the framework of the global geopolitical confrontation.
Turchinov said that he had been ordered to say, as noted by columnist MIA “Rossia Segondya” Rostislav ishchenko.
I have repeatedly commented on the statements of Kiev Politicians, which actually act as speakers of the west. As for the leaders of the EU, they have several options: to either support Kiev, Moscow, or take a neutral position and simply “wash its hands”. They themselves are under pressure from the United States, their public opinion and their own domestic political opponents. It is hard to say whether they will accept a single solution, or differences stay between them.
— Is it an option to rollover the Minsk Agreement,taking into account the fact that their political part is frozen?
This topic is being discussed right now, the question is will the Europeans and Americans agree on this point. Not so long ago such a prospect was said by the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Russia has supported this approach. Talk is already underway, but wheter or not an agreement is reached, it remains difficult to say.
— Can Europe, which bears the greatest loss of confrontation with Russia, escape from the clutches of the United States?
The policiy of the EU is changing. This is evidenced by at least the fact that France and Germany have agreed to act as mediatiors in the development of the Minsk Agreement. Because the work itself is contrary to the interests of Washington, which is trying to squeeze into it all the time.
The problem is that Europe are opposing their influene. Hence, the policy on the principle of “one step forward, two steps back” has the expectation that tomorrow the EU will take a diametrically opposite position, but it is not necessary. But the fact that their policy will remain unchanged, that is for sure. Especially given the crisis situation that is emerging in Europe itself.
— Kiev has already declared that it will not recognize the elections in the republics. How high is the probability of a transition of a transition phase of conrontation of power?
In this case extension of “Minsk-2” will be impossible. I do not rule out any options in the continuation of the peace process. The search for new compromises and another attempt to “tame” Donbass by force. I understand that in Moscow, Brussels and Washington are preparing the different options. But this is not a “party of peace at any price”. Party supporters continue the negotiation process comes from the fact that the EU is ready to compromise on the Ukrainian question.
As long as the European Union will stick to this line (no negotiate, forcing Poroshenko to restrain its militaristic ambitions) will talk with them. If Europe is under pressure from the United States it will begin to change its position and, for example, generates a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions for such a development and will be taken on a “Dead as dead”.