0 $
2,500 $
5,000 $
1,360 $
JUNE 2021

Astana Peace Process: Time to Make China Fourth Guarantor State

Support SouthFront

Written by Peter Korzun; Originally appeared on strategic-culture.org

In January, Russia hosted the Congress of Syrian National Dialog in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. It has been the most representative forum thus far to discuss the conflict in Syria. Moscow invited Beijing to take part in the event as an observer. The Russian government believes that China is too important to be denied a role in the process of bringing peace to that war-torn country.

Post-war Syria is a scene of devastation. The creation of de-escalation zones has worked well to establish a cease-fire and a pause to catch one’s breath before the work of reconstruction begins. The Western powers are very unlikely to help rebuild Syria as long as Assad’s government, which is backed by Russia and Iran, remains in power. Legislation that has been dubbed the “No Assistance for Assad Act” has passed the US House of Representatives and has been read twice in the Senate. The bill seeks to channel US aid exclusively to the parts of Syria outside the control of the government.

The West’s reluctance to help rebuild Syria makes China a viable alternative. It is ready to contribute, which is a very welcome development. Chinese businessmen are already in Syria, exploring the opportunities for investment. Beijing has announced a plan to build a $2 billion industrial park for 150 Chinese companies. It has launched the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a multi-billion, massive, intercontinental infrastructure development project, which includes Syria as a transit partner. China is for future investments around the world and Syria could be the beneficiary of much of that. It could also be used to assist Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the Astana process guarantor states.

China provides military and other forms of assistance to Syria. It has a vested interest in the settlement of the conflict, because stability in Syria reduces the risk that mercenaries from Xinjiang will return home to mount terrorist attacks. Last year, about 5,000 ethnic Uyghurs from that province traveled to Syria to train and fight for various militant groups. The normalization of the situation would prevent the country from becoming a haven and training ground for China’s Muslim extremists. But no stability is achievable in Syria without improved living standards.

Beijing has been playing a low-key yet active role in the peace process, without military involvement. It has joined Russia to veto several UN proposals put forward by the West that would sanction the Syrian government.

If China became the fourth full-fledged guarantor state for the Astana process, the peace effort could expand to bring in other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including India and Pakistan. These states have never taken sides in Syria’s conflict, and thus could be trusted to act as impartial mediators. Iran is an observer and Turkey is a partner in the dialog. Egypt and Syria have also submitted applications to be granted observer status. Cairo is considering the possibility of sending its forces to Syria. With so many members involved in the conflict, the SCO could launch a comprehensive, international peace initiative based on the Astana process.

If some progress were made, Syria could obtain a status in the group that would be a stepping stone to full-fledged membership. The SCO could speak with one voice at the UN-brokered Geneva talks. The Shanghai Organization could solve the Syrian conflict without the West imposing its own rules of the game. Such a political breakthrough would greatly facilitate the implementation of China’s BRI, with all the major actors participating in the project. The SCO’s clout would grow immensely. Europe would benefit as well, if an SCO-brokered peace halted the flow of refugees.

China and Russia are also members of BRICS, another powerful group with growing prominence on the world stage. Three out of the five BRICS states – Russia, India, and China – are members of the Shanghai group. Brazil and South Africa would boost their global clout by joining in an SCO-BRICS peace effort in Syria. It’s important that the Syrian government view the BRICS coalition as a legitimate player. The participation of BRICS and SCO in the settlement process would transform the international system into a more multilateral configuration. This would also be in line with the concept of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), which was adopted by the UN in 2005. Syria is the right place to demonstrate that R2P is more than an empty phrase.

In theory, there may be reservations about bringing China in to act as the fourth guarantor state in the Astana process, but the advantages clearly outweigh any doubts. It would be a good thing for Beijing to play a greater role in the political efforts.

No peace will come if Syria is not rebuilt. The post-war reconstruction is too much for anyone to take on alone. It needs to be a comprehensive, international endeavor. This is a good opportunity for the SCO and BRICS to transform themselves into real international actors tackling urgent problems. Expanding the effort to bring peace to Syria is kind of a chain reaction that could be set in motion by bringing in China. This would be a step in the right direction toward resolving the conflict.

Support SouthFront

SouthFront

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jonathan Murray

Looks like the Russians have a plan!

You can call me Al

“a cunning plan”…….

FlorianGeyer

Theresa May also is full of ‘cunning plans’. She informs her staff of her grocery list at least 24 hours before the food runs out.

Macron plans in front of a mirror every day.

Trump just reacts and then says it was a ‘very smart plan’.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

China has been investing heavily in both Syria and Iran for several years now, and would only be doing so if they believed Russia, Syria and Iran are going to prevail against the US.

PZIVJ

These countries do share common interest.
And should form a stronger economic bloc.
This would piss off many in the west. :)

Rob

https://youtu.be/0W10mOVhp0g
Israeli-made weapons among arms handed over by militants in Damascus
Israeli-made landmines were found in a large trove of medium and heavy weapons handed over by rebels in southern Damascus, Syria’s state media reported. Damascus has repeatedly accused Tel Aviv of aiding militants.

This is far from the first report of Israeli-made weapons being stockpiled by militants. In February, it was reported that the Syrian army stumbled onto warehouses that were stacked with weapons, some of which were Israeli-made, as they were inspecting the Al Boukamal and Al Mayadin areas in Deir ez-Zor, which was liberated by the Syrian forces from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) in the fall of last year.

Since the onset of hostilities in Syria, the Syrian military has repeatedly seized armaments and munitions with inscriptions in Hebrew. In April 2016, Syrian forces pulled over a vehicle packed with Israeli-made mines, mortars, rockets and hand grenades that were bound for an area controlled by ISIS in eastern Syria. This is a proof that ISIS and Al-Qaeda are fake Muslims….

Serious

The truth is that China and Russia can’t help Syria because they are too corrupted, can’t tecnhonlogically compete with the west and love too much the west.

If China and Russia want to balance the west gang, they have huge improvments to make. Russia can compete with the west rather easily. For Russia, the russian mindset is the problem. For China, they need big big improvments.

Serious

China was making big money with Gadafi with big investments. When the west came to kill Gadafi, China did nothing, even not a veto. At that time Medevev didn’t put the veto neither.

So, if I was Syrian, I will not trust that much China. Look at the NK case.

Syrians are on their own and like most of them are fucking traitors or fucking islamists shit or corrupted people, I don’t see a lot of improvment.

Rob

Most of the Christian and Muslim countries have been destroyed by the fake Christian’s and fake Muslim’s priests because they give wrong lectures. If a child does not want to go to a Church or to a Mosque then it means that something wrong there.

Serious

If a child don’t want to go to a Chruch nor o Mosque, it’s a good sign. He is ready to be a free mind and protect his country. Look at China. No abrahamic religions. The fact that China is free of abrahamic religions makes China stronger.

Sephy

Chinese are just a bunch of cowards. Don’t count on them. They no longer put a veto in the UN on the behalf of Syria/Russia.

Hideo Watanabe

They did and will do.

RichardD

“No peace will come if Syria is not rebuilt.”

Yes, that’s the Yinon plan. No regime change, no peace. Which is why the rest of Syria needs to be liberated for there to be peace. The solution to a lot of these problems is outlawing Judaism and dejudifying the planet.

Richard M

How can the Ottoman Empire be a guarantor of peace while they are simultaneously invading, occupying and ethnically cleansing Syrian lands? Might as well make Wahhabistan, Ziostan and CIA-istan guarantors as well. It would be like making Reinhard Heydrich the chief of Interpol!

Dr. Pro Liv

“No peace will come if Syria is not rebuilt”
And no peace will come if Syria doesn’t get that peace SOON.
If not Syria will become another Afghanistan or Libya …a failed state.

John Mason

UN is compromised and under the influence of the US whereby Astana has a clean bill of health and may eventually replace some if not all of the UN functions.

Peter Moy

First of all, in the words of the economic forecaster Gerald Celente, the business of China is BUSINESS. They are not engaged militarily in any wars at present (aside from UN peacekeeping missions in Africa) and are just waiting, very patiently for an end to the war in Syria. For such a large country they do not try to be a world policeman or world bully like the US and its lapdogs. A combination of Russia, Iran Turkey and China would sure be a counterweight to the US and its despicable, arrogant, destructive, murderous policies in the region.

Rob

Washington is seeking the “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation” of the North Korea and stresses that verification will be the key. Reporters from China, Russia, the United States, Britain and South Korea would be allowed to cover the event on site to show it “in a transparent manner”.

This is a great insult of Kim and of the Korean nation. Any defense research and development is vital for survival in this world. Kim has finally controlled by CIA intelligence.

This week the North Korea released three Korean-Americans it had detained, into the care of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Trump also withdrew from a nuclear pact with Iran, raising questions over whether Kim would trust Washington’s promises.

Pompeo on Friday promised that the US would work to rebuild North Korea’s sanctions-hit economy if Kim surrender its nuclear arsenal/assets like Libyan leader Muamar Qazzafi. Should President Kim trust US like Saddam and Qazzafi.

Hideo Watanabe

Kim is not stupid. The US is twisted around this time. The last missile launch was November 29 2017. Some body behind the scene arranged for North to participate in Winter Olympic games in February. It was a tough work to persuade IOC to accept her participation during a very short period of time, just within a month or so. South could not do that alone. Think about that it was always North that had thrown a ball to the US.

North’s move is very well calculated, I presume.

Rob

You dont know this happend with Saddam, Qazzafi etc. US/Israeli migrants first blockade the nation and then invade them.

Hideo Watanabe

OK, my comment and your reply were 14 days old. What is your opinion now?
I tell you two things. 1) You don’t know that China warned the US three times last year, April, July and November that China would take it as aggression to China if the US and Korean troops crossed the truce line or tried to topple the Kim regime, do you? 2) Time has changed from Iraq and Libya. Russia an China has exceeded the US military strength in strategic weapon such as hypersonic vehicle, which is a game changer. The US has to restrain because if they do something stupid it is going to be a war against China and Russia. Mr. Kim knows the shift of power balance.

Eight years ago Mr. Kim’s father and Mr. Medvedev signed the contract for railroad construction but it seemed not to be timely in terms of power balance. South Korea will have benefit from such railroad to reduce the transportation cost of raw materials, goods and energy. North Korea is a hub for future economic development of Far East. In addition, North Korea has 6 to 10 trillion dollar worth mineral deposit. They can sell mining rights for mining. Once sizable multilateral foreign investment is made, it will solve security concern of North Korea to eventually abandon nuclear bombs.

Peace for Asia!

joeching

korea, japan and china must unify:
Today, with the onslaught of globalization, small countries either unify, or perish. In order to share the vast Chinese market, the original Japanese concept of the “East Asia Community” is the only viable option for Korea, Japan and China.
A not so trivial a bonus of this Asia unification is to finally get America off Asia’s back.
The unification of Asia should adopt a time-tested method of ethnic minority governance to achieve ethnic harmony as demonstrated by the Qing Dynasty
North Korea, being the undisputed minority, and for what Japan owed Korea for Japan’s WWII mischiefs, should be voted the top ruler.
Being the country, least contaminated by Western barbarism, North Korea should be given the authority to guide the new Asia Family back to reviving Asian morality, culture and tradition.
With Korea being the Minority ruler, it would leave Korea an option to preserve and protect her ethnic purity and reclusive tranquility. But most of all, minority rule will guarantee all minority ethnics’ accessing the majority ethnics’ market place and military protection.
Japan, naturally, should be given the responsibility to bring all the family members up to the highest living standard in the world as herself, using her benevolent fascism experience.
You see, fascism, is as much hated by the unruly Westerners as it is loved by the disciplined Asians. Actually, same applies to communism, because of West’s selfishness and Asia’s generosity.
China should be asked, first of all, to keep America’s military at bay from Asia, as her People’s Liberation Army has been doing that since day one.
But in the long run, China’s new cultural innovation of communistic volunteerism should be fully developed and implemented to usher in the post-scarcity era of full automation and excellence in innovation.
In conclusion, this is the hopeful future Asians should expect.
The new Asia family should be ruled culturally by the minority tradition-bounded North Koreans, by way of cultural revival.
The high-standard-living Japanese should make sure no one is left out from the good life, by way of technology and sport fitness.
And the hard-working Chinese should volunteer everything else that Korea and Japan missed, with their die-hard communist spirit, by way of software automation.
Finally on the practical front, Japan and Korea’s crises of population aging fit squarely with China’s inclination for filial piety. Aged wisdom will guide youthful exuberance to new frontiers in humanity’s journey on Earth.

Joe Ching

north and south korea, japan and china did good! this is what i m going to tie america’s legs from blow up this good thing:
FORMATION OF THE UNION OF PACIFIC RIM AND
ZHENG FAMILY’S RISE FROM THE EAST MOUNTAIN
Hugh, high time for us non-stopping twins to sock it to this messed up world. here is the action plan for u:
1. u go get, with help from yvette, governor brown to run for 2020 president, here is the pitch:
(1) his presidency is the only way america would be able to still lead the world by facing china’s challenge in its 2025 technology surge and one-belt-one-road plan.
(2) even if he shall fail, california would have declared this “world leadership plan”, the platform of his bid for the presidency, and act independently from 2020 to achieve this for california, even if it takes a serious secession effort. california must join these effort and lead them, rather than fight them like trump’s doing.
(3) emphasize the fact that, if california cannot act independently, then it would surely be dragged down by the warmongering and superstitious america east, while surpassed technologically by the china, japan and korea block.
(4) if u have to, tell brown that since ur brother joe has helped china getting the world’s fastest supercomputers and joe is the surviving authority in centralized processing, that it’s possible for joe to work out a collaboration with china’s changsha technology military university to set up a supercomputing center, similar to the boeing computer service center, in the berkeley hills, as the world center for innovation and automation.
2. once brown decides to run, go to taiwan and convince ma yinju to run in 2020, too:
(1) by 2020, both the green and blue parties will have less than 30% popularity. so, ma could shed the baggages of the criminal and margian-addicting inept kuomingtong party of the treators, chiang and sun, and start a centric party of the 40%+ majority. the book i m writing in asia history from the asians’ perspective might help him to see more clear how the true history would extrapolate to the real future of asia.
(2) ma’s plan for taiwan is to align with u.s.a. via california’s brown, as with the recent formation of the east asia community by china, japan and korea, taiwan and california are both in danger of being left behind and marginalized.
(3) as ma was known as someone who loves academic shit but never would listen much to advices, u might have to resort to tell him about the stories of how i saved taiwan’s technology and economic life by breaking america’s covert sanction and how i helped china getting its world’s most powerful supercomputers, which r responsible for the upward surge in military technology since 2008.
(4) if that still doesnt work, it then left us with the big stretched stories of how joe camped on the border of north korea, and shuttle among north korea, japan and china to “get” peace in north korea and mended the relations between china and japan.
(5) also might as well tell him that bob helped both japan’s rise and china’s rise, and have met with north korea’s secretary of commerce(used to be of the beijing embassy, probably now the entire north korea).
i will finish my pongfu training (10,000,000 shots, 1sec/shot) in another 34 days. and i ll be back in berkeley around our 75th birthday. if i could just be qualified for the 2020 olympics, it would be a big boast to our effort. in the meantime, u ll just have to make do with ur fleeting-feet dancing skills.

joeching

syria is not along in this suppressed state, japan actually has been like that for 75 years:
The Saga of Seven Samurai:

[Truth of Nanking】 The death of “Seven Samurai” [Dec. 13, 2015]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-5ItfKF_RY

The Great East Asian Conference was held in Tokyo in November,1943. This conference adopted resolutions proclaiming “Liberation and independence from the Western Powers” and “Abolishment of racism”.

Since the China Incident, Japan and China suffered a great deal of casualties. But it meant they were sacrificed in what should be called a justified war of Great Pan Asia, in which they fought to win independence from the Western Powers.

All people in Asia shall forget this time’s hardship to join hands in the future. Pan-Asian people shall acquire rights just like other people in the world, and should rather be proud of being nonwhite races. All Asians should respect the Indian judge of the Tokyo Trial. His impartial judgment was Pan-Asian people’s pride. If this war had paved the way for Pan-Asian people’s right to life to be accepted by the world, we should all be gratified. The Western Powers should cast off their ideas of exclusionism and move forward with a sense of co-prosperity.

Without a spiritual connection through common faith and culture, promoting goodwill between China and Japan would be hard.

In 1939, clays collected from battlefields in Nanking and Shanghai was brought back to Japan. Then a ceramic statue of Bodhisattva was built in Atami to comfort the souls of war dead of the two countries, using mixed clays collected in China and Japan. That is the statue of Koa Kannon. Under the faith of Kannon, the war dead shall be treated equally, friend or foe alike.

There are ones who express dissent on this matter. They’re ungrateful for not knowing the value of air and soil. Somewhere in Asia, we must have someone who can see…how the world changes.

24
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x