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On September 27, a new regional war in South Caucasus arose from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Pro-Armenian forces captured the region in the early 90s triggering an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Further development of the hostilities and the expected offensive by pro-Azerbajian forces were stopped by a Russian intervention in May of 1994. As of September 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh region and nearby areas are still under the control of Armenian forces, de-facto making it an unrecognized Armenian state – the Republic of Artsakh (more widely known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic).
The 2018 political crisis in Armenia the led to a seizure of power in the country by de-facto pro-Western forces led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan which did not strengthen Armenian positions over the territorial dispute. The double standard policy of the Armenian government, which was de-facto conducting anti-Russian actions but keeping public rhetoric pro-Russian, also played its own role. For years, Russia has been the only guarantor of Armenian statehood and the only force capable to rescue it in the event of a full-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish attack. Nonetheless, the Armenian leadership did pretty well in undermining its strategic partnership with its neighbor.
On the other hand, the political and economic situation in Azerbaijan was more stable. Baku also was able to secure good working relations with Russia. Together with the developing strategic partnership with Turkey, a natural historical ally of the country, and the strengthening of Turkish positions in the Greater Middle East, led to an expected attempt by Azerbaijan to restore control over the contested territories.
The Azerbaijani advance started on in the morning of September 27 and as of September 28, the Azerbaijani military said that it had captured seven villages and several key heights in the Fuzuli and Jabrayil areas. The military also announced that Azerbaijan captured the Murov height of the Murovdag mountain range and established fire control of the Vardenis-Aghdar road connecting Karabakh with Armenia. The Ministry of Defense said that this will prevent the transportation of additional troops and equipment from Armenia along the route in the direction of the Kelbajar and Aghdar regions in Karabakh.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry also claimed that over 550 Armenian soldiers were killed and dozens pieces of Armenian military equipment, including at least 15 Osa air defense systems, 22 battle tanks and 8 artillery guns, were destroyed. All statements from the Armenian side about the casualties among Azerbaijani forces were denounced as fake news.
Azerbaijan calls the ongoing advance a “counter-offensive” needed to put an end to Armenian ceasefire violations and to protect civilians. President Ilham Aliyev signed a martial law decree and vowed to “restore historical justice” and “restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” Turkey immediately declared its full support to Azerbaijan saying that it is ready to assist it in any way requested, including military support.
In its own turn, the Armenian military admitted that Azerbaijan captured some positions near Talish, but denied that the Vardenis-Aghdar road was cut off. According to it, at least 200 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed, 30 armored vehicles and 20 drones were destroyed. The Armenian Defense Ministry also said that it has data about Turkish involvement in the conflict, the usage of Turkish weapons and the presence of mercenaries linked to Turkey. Earlier, reports appeared that Turkey was deploying members of its Syrian proxy groups in Azerbaijan. Arayik Harutyunyan, the President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, openly stated that the republic is at war with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The Washington establishment that helped Pashinyan to seize power is also not hurrying up to assist its ‘new friends’ in Armenia. They see the Nagorno-Karabakh region as a point of possible conflict between Russia and Turkey (which is useful to promote the US agenda in the Greater Middle East). The instability in South Caucasus, close to the borders of Russia and Iran, also contributes to the geopolitical interests of the United States. Therefore, the Pashinyan government should not expect any real help from the ‘democratic superpower’.
On the other hand, the direct involvement of Russia and thus the Collective Security Treaty Organization on the side of Armenia is unlikely until there is no direct attack on its territory. Moscow would intervene into the conflict both politically and militarily, but only as far as necessary to prevent a violation of Armenia’s borders. Russia would not contribute military efforts to restore Armenian control over Nagorno Karabakh should the region be captured by Azerbaijan.
If the regional war between Azerbaijan and Armenia develops further in the current direction, Armenia could loose at least a part of its positions in the contested region. In the worst-case scenario for the Armenian leadership, Azerbaijan, with help from Turkey, will have a real chance to restore control over the most of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
well, surely the Armenian will be happy of their new American friends ( helping militarily the Azeri ) and the European one ( they are under weapons embargo, to be fair also Azeri are) .
Azerbaijan has a great opportunity to take Karabakh back. They’ve waited for so long, they have full support from Turkiye, and Russia won’t intervene at the beginning of the conflict since Putin wants that US-oriented Armenian prime minister Pashinyan to be purged as soon as possible. Remember that puppet prime minister even questioned the Russian bases inside Armenia whenever he came to power a few years ago. That’s why Russia will enjoy seeing the Armenian government suffering and losing power in the eyes of Armenians and they will continue to remain silent for a while. The only consideration of Russia would be preventing occidental countries being engaged in this situation.
Selam..ı hope but I have serious doubts after the footage that ı saw 10 minutes ago…ı think this is a kind of curse on oil-rich countries..not serious investment-training on human resources but believing purchase of shiny-expensive toys will bring victory..Azerbaijan soldiers even doesnt know how to take cover..they are behaving like ghetto-trash in war-zone even they know every hill is full of mlrs/artillery/recon systems..They have to find cover-find their target and shot back in ten seconds but they are panicking,no self-control..it will cost hell of a life if they take karabagh back.
Selam my friend. We cannot expect our Azerbaijan brothers to fight like a top country. They have no big war experience but they have heart and they’ve every right to fight for their homeland. I haven’t seen the video that you’ve talked about but I believe they will succeed despite big loses. Armenians are no match to them since they’re much worse if the topic is war. Both sides will have huge casualties but Azerbaijan will be the winner at this political climate i guess.
hiç seyretme zaten elim-ayağım boşaldı sinirden..
Es2lem belse3m bablabablababla blu trt-vrt zingiri-pingiri.
Like Lukashenko, Pashinyan is seeing the benefits of cozying up to US State D.
Lukashenko is a Russian-friendly man as far as i see. Wasn’t he the one threatened by the EU recently? But Pashinyan is another story and i guess he will be history soon. He has no real friends in the region.
Lukashenko was trying to claim “Russian mercenaries” were interfering in the Belarus elections just a couple months ago…
And this was true. Putin wants him out.
He is acting as if he is now. But he tried to blackmail Russia less than two months ago
Unfortunately you maybe right.
armenia needs to start rolling into azeri territory now
FORWARD TO BAKU ! :DD
You will finish before you reach your destination
Yes I was just thinking that. That enclave to the west could easily be invaded and used as a bargaining chip. Too bad they don’t have intelligent people in the government since it’s pro Weston.
Yes sir what with? assad gangs help maybe?
Azeris cannot win anything–these turkeys were obliterated by Armenia in the early 1990’s; already Artsakh military has removed azeris from some Armenian villages. I suspect that this will concluded as soon as the line of contact is restored—if azeris don’t surrender Armenians will retrieve even more territory
As usual without Russian help Armenia can do jackshit. What you on about clueless idiot
Azeris have much better military kit this time, from many countries. OK maybe lacking in experience but can compensate for that with Turkey military adviors, and in war you learn fast. So more evenly balanced than the nineties Azeris can make gains this time but it will be costly.
Fair points. But remember people thought the Donbass republics would lose against Ukraine’s Maidanites and their military aid from the US, Poland, etc. without open aid from Russia? The world elites’ strategy of just lying lots of people into wars is not as effective as it used to be.
Agreed Poppadop. Also In Armenia favour, they are fighting for survival as if add Armenia + Ng-Kh together, the territory in dispute; Ng-Kh; is a about a third of the total territory. So Armenia side will commit more men and more spirit to win. The Armenians do not want to become another stateless people like the Kurds.
In the meantime independent news coverage, any news coverage on the front line, is cleary lacking, so we do not know who is winning. But it looks like a high intensity battle formally involving the forces of two countries. Maybe the last war like this Iran-Iraq.
So, I,should be worried and demoralised now. I don’t think so.
Bolshevik and Communist Stalin took Republic of Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh) with belongs to Armenia since Armenians have been around as Indo-European country and the first whites. Armenia is a Christian country, in fact the first country that accepted Christianity as the main religion.
The former Armenian presidents stole the wealth and treasury from Armenia. They were Western Puppets. People of Armenia got tired of them and they elected Pashinyan who is extremely popular and is not a poppet to anyone. Soros created headquarters in Armenia during the former presidents. Pashinyan wants Soros and ANTIFA out. Prince Rothschild Charles, has been digging Armenia’s Gold mines that will result in stopping the natural water from underneath the earth to go to Jermuk. That’s why Britten and US are not taking sides.
The Turkish Mercenaries are ISIS members.
To sum up the video everyone left Armenia alone against Azerbaijan in this issue. In that case I can bet the current escalation was started by Azerbaijan
southfront, ive been a patreon fan for couple of years now, but this video this report is full of bias, Armenia never started war, armenians in Artsakh wanted an autonomus republic just like the lugansk people did and you supported them.. so you either support the idea of self determination or not..
Putin will do nothing unless the Azeris break through the official Armenian border (which the Azeris will not do), thanks to their idiotic trysts with the West, so no Russian help is coming. Period. Trump will do nothing, even though Armenia’s govt has licked his boots, since there is nothing to be gained from helping Armenia, the Armenian govt clearly learned nothing from the Kurds. Well done to Armenia, p1221ng off Russia, the only country who could have helped you.
The CIA project leaders uncanny ability to find Disputed Regions around the world and cause War around them to create chaos, especially for Russia.